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The Impact Hypothesis: A Smarter Way to Talk About Climate Impact
A Quick Refresher: IH vs. CIF
Can You Trust an IH?
What This Means for You
A First but not the Final Answer

How Accurate are Impact Hypotheses? Analysis of 1200 innovations and their climate impact

Article
By Bram van der Grinten, 22.05.2025
Founder of Impact Forecast
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The Impact Hypothesis is a lightweight, logic-based tool for founders and investors to assess climate impact early, before full LCAs or even CIFs (Climate Impact Forecasts) are viable. It offers a highly simplified quantification of Greenhouse gas reduction, and unlike LCAs and CIFs, Impact Hypotheses are not validated by third party experts. So, how reliable are these hypotheses?

Thanks to our growing database of early-stage assessments, we can now answer that question. Across 1200 Impact Hypotheses (IHs) and 600 validated Climate Impact Forecasts (CIFs), created by startups we support, we examined how often the initial hypothesis matches the independently verified analysis. The results offer powerful insights into the useful applications of Impact Hypotheses.

A Quick Refresher: IH vs. CIF

Impact Hypothesis

A simplified, structured explanation of how an innovation reduces emissions or improves resilience. Built using basic reasoning and rough carbon quantification. Low effort, founder-friendly.

Climate Impact Forecast

A more detailed yet still accessible method for assessing climate and environmental impact. Based on LCA logic, allows for multiple impact factors, and is reviewable by LCA experts. Mid-level effort, more reliable.

Can You Trust an IH?

We cross referenced 1200 impact hypothesis and 600 validated Climate Impact Forecasts. For the impact innovations that created both, we compared their results across three levels of predictive strength.

What This Means for You

For Investors and Programs
Use the Impact Hypothesis to:
  1. Quickly separate positive-impact innovations from neutral or harmful ones
  2. Identify high-potential ideas for follow-up
  3. Decide where to allocate support for deeper assessments (CIF, LCA, expert review)
But don’t use it as:
  1. A proxy for actual GHG emission reductions
  2. A way to create claims or publish statements about the impact
For Founders
Use the Impact Hypothesis to:
  1. Clarify your logic and model your climate case
  2. Build trust and show investors you take impact seriously
  3. Spot when your assumptions might be missing a big opportunity
Then use CIF or LCA to:
  1. Validate your impact
  2. Create transparent, verified impact claims
  3. Refine your design or business model with confidence

A First but not the Final Answer

The Impact Hypothesis is not a precision tool. But it doesn’t want to be. It’s a way to start the conversation in the right direction.

With 75% accuracy on climate positivity, it gives programs and investors a reliable shortcut for early-stage screening. And because it tends to underestimate rather than overinflate, it creates a safe, conservative floor for deeper engagement.

As we build more robust tools like the Climate Impact Forecast, the pathway from hypothesis to verification becomes smoother, cheaper, and more scalable.

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